CNB Workshop on Households’ Inflation Expectations

Measuring Households’ Inflation Expectations: Theory, Practice, Implications

Prague, 28 November 2024

Czech National Bank Congress Centre (The Commodity Exchange), Senovážné nám. 30, Prague 1
The workshop is open to registered participants only. Registration has been closed

The workshop is organized by the Czech National Bank, Anglo-American University, and Charles University with the financial support of the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic as part of project No. TQ01000396, titled “Survey of Short-Term and Long-Term Inflation Expectations of Czech Households.”

Program

Thursday, 28 November 2024
All times are in Central European Time.

8:30 Registration & Morning Coffee
8:55 Opening Remarks
Jan Brůha, Director of Economic Research Division, Monetary Department, Czech National Bank
9:00 Five Facts About Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Four Different Groups of Agents
Tuva Marie Fastbø, Eleonora Granziera, Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli (Norges Bank), Lovisa Reiche (University of Oxford) and Michael Weber (University of Chicago Booth)
9:30 A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations
Olga Goldfayn-Frank (Deutsche Bundesbank), Pascal Kieren and Stefan Trautmann (Heidelberg University)
10:00 Households’ Subjective Expectations: Disagreement, Common Drivers and Reaction to Monetary Policy Banks’ Credit Losses and Lending Dynamics
Clodomiro Ferreira (Bank of Spain) and Stefano Pica (Bank of Italy)
10:30 Coffee break
10:50 Keynote Speech: Household Inflation Expectations – Some Recent Research Insights for Monetary Policy
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
11:45 Lunch
13:00 Keynote Speech: Inflation Expectations and Household Consumption
Michal Marenčák, National Bank of Slovakia
13:40 Poster session 1 and coffee
  Consumers’ Pessimism in Inflation Expectations: Does It Matter?
Evangelos Charalambakis (Bank of Greece)

Understanding Inflation Expectations in the Czech Economy: Data, Drivers and Policy Implications.
František Brázdik, Tatiana Keseliová, Karel Musil, Radek Šnobl, Jan Šolc, Stanislav Tvrz, and Jan Žáček (Czech National Bank)

Anchoring Households’ Inflation Expectations When Inflation Is High.
Giang Nghiem, Lena Dräger and Ami Dalloul (Leibniz University Hannover)

The Impact of Respondent Characteristics on Inflation Expectations and Perceptions in the UK.
Kamil Kladivko (Örebro University, School of Business)

Households’ Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education.
Eleonora Granziera (Norges Bank), Jessica Piccolo, Alessia Russo and Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova)

Inflation Expectations and Labor Market Dynamics: Evidence from the US and South Africa.
Lovisa Reiche (University of Oxford)

Consumer Inflation Expectations in Mexico: Preliminary Findings.
Carolina Rodrıguez-Zamora and Pablo Derbez Rodríguez (Bank of Mexico)

Consumer Inflation Expectations and Local Price Changes.
Tomasz Łyziak (Narodowy Bank Polski), Michael Pedersen (Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Business School, Chile) and Ewa Stanisławska (Narodowy Bank Polski)
14:30 Unexpecting the Expected in Forecasting Inflation: A Real-Time Analysis for the Euro Area
Nicolás Bonino-Gayoso and Mónica Correa-López (Banco de España)
15:00 The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household Spending
Johannes J. Fischer (Bundesbank), Christoph Herler and Philip Schnattinger (Bank of England)
15:30 Czech Households Inflation Expectations: Preliminary Results
Jaromír Baxa (Charles University), Jan Brůha (Czech National Bank), Nino Buliskeria (Charles University) and Jiří Schwarz (Anglo-American University, Prague)
16:00 Poster session 2 and coffee
  Inflation Expectations and Business Cycles Position.
František Brázdik and Tatiana Keseliová (Czech National Bank)

Disagreement about Expected Inflation and the Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic.
Tereza Vesela (Charles University)

Great Expectations: The Role of Experiences in Irish House Price Expectations Formation.
Laura Boyd, Tara McIndoe-Calder and Zivile Zekaite (Central Bank of Ireland)

Inflation Expectations and Consumption: The Role of Heterogeneity in New Keynesian Models.
Frantisek Masek (Sapienza University of Rome and National Bank of Slovakia)

The Dynamics of Consumer Inflation Expectations before and after the 2022 Inflation Spike: The Role of Perceived and Realised Inflation.
Gerda Kirpson (Bank of Estonia and Tallinn University of Technology)

Who’s on FIRE? Household Characteristics and the Formation of Inflation Expectations.
Lovisa Reiche (University of Oxford), Gabriele Galati (De Nederlandsche Bank), Richhild Moessner (CESifo and University of Heidelberg) and Maarten van Rooij (De Nederlandsche Bank and European Central Bank)

Determinants of Household and Professional Forecasters’ Inflation Expectations in India.
Irfan Ali K C (University of Hyderabad and Dr. B. R. Ambedkar School of Economics University, Bengaluru) and Masudul Hasan Adil (Indian Institute of Technology Mandi)
16:50 Beyond the Headline: How Personal Exposure to Inflation Shapes the Financial Choices of Households Merike Kukk (Bank of Estonia and Tallinn University of Technology), Jan Toczynski (Queen Mary University of London) and Christoph Basten (European Central Bank)
17:20 Framing Effects in Consumer Expectations Surveys Lora Pavlova (ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research)
17:50 End of session
18:30 Dinner (by invitation)
21:30 End of event

The program can be downloaded here: Program (pdf, 423 kB)

Organizing Committee

  • Jan Babecký (Czech National Bank)
  • Jan Brůha (Czech National Bank)

Scientific Committee

  • Jan Babecký (Czech National Bank)
  • Jan Brůha (Czech National Bank)
  • Jiří Schwarz (Anglo-American University, Prague)
  • Jaromír Baxa (Charles University)